Australia’s Chickpea Crop Set to Halve as Lentils Hit Record High
Australia is heading for one of its sharpest pulse-market splits in years. The national chickpea crop is forecast to fall 52% in 2026–27 to just over 1 million tonnes, while lentil production is expected to rise 5% to a second consecutive record of 2.3 million tonnes.
The contrast matters because it is not the result of one nationwide trend. It reflects two very different growing seasons inside the same country: dry planting conditions and weak soil moisture in the northern chickpea belt, set against excellent moisture and crop development in the southern lentil regions.
The figures come from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, or ABARES. They are forecasts rather than final harvest results, but the state-level detail shows why the gap has become so large.
Northern drought cut chickpea area and yield
Chickpeas are concentrated in Queensland and New South Wales, where the 2026 winter season began with much poorer moisture than in southern Australia. ABARES estimates that Queensland planted 380,000 hectares of chickpeas, down 24.8% from the previous season. Production is forecast at 570,000 tonnes, a fall of 41.5%.
The decline is steeper in New South Wales. The planted area is estimated at 345,000 hectares, down 46.9%, while production is forecast at 450,000 tonnes, down 61.9%. ABARES expects an average yield of 1.30 tonnes per hectare there, compared with 1.50 tonnes per hectare in Queensland.
The reduction is therefore not just a yield story. Many growers planted fewer chickpeas because the soil was already too dry, particularly in northern New South Wales and central and southern Queensland. Lower expected yields then compounded the loss in planted area.
That distinction is important for markets. A crop can sometimes recover from poor early conditions if later rain lifts yields. It is harder to replace production when a large share of the intended area was never planted.
Southern conditions pushed lentils to another record
The lentil outlook is almost the mirror image. South Australia is forecast to produce 1.2 million tonnes from 600,000 hectares, an increase of 7.8% in output. ABARES expects an average yield of 2.0 tonnes per hectare after strong soil moisture and favourable winter rainfall advanced crop development.
Victoria is forecast to produce 933,000 tonnes of lentils from 533,000 hectares. Output is only slightly above last season, but the state remains a major part of the national crop. Together, South Australia and Victoria account for most of the record 2.3 million-tonne national forecast.
Lentils also fit the economics of the season. As a pulse crop, they fix nitrogen through a symbiotic relationship with soil bacteria, which can reduce the need for nitrogen fertiliser within the crop and support rotational planning. ABARES has linked the longer-term expansion in lentil area to both crop margins and their lower fertiliser requirement compared with some alternatives.
A large national harvest can still hide local losses
Australia’s overall winter crop is not small. ABARES forecasts 61 million tonnes in 2026–27, down 12% from last season but still 16% above the 10-year average and potentially the fourth-largest crop on record.
That national headline can obscure the regional split. Queensland winter crop production is forecast to fall 44% to 2.2 million tonnes. New South Wales is expected to decline 30% to 13.1 million tonnes. Victoria, by contrast, could reach a record 11.3 million tonnes, while South Australia is forecast at 11.3 million tonnes, its second-highest result.
For buyers, processors and exporters, the composition of the harvest matters as much as the total tonnage. A record lentil crop cannot directly replace a missing chickpea crop: the products serve different food markets, grades and end uses.
What the pulse split could mean
If the chickpea forecast is realised, Australia will have less new-season supply available for domestic use and export than it did last year. The price effect will depend on carry-in stocks, crop quality, demand and production in competing origins. The forecast alone does not prove that prices will rise, but it reduces the production cushion.
The record lentil outlook points in the opposite direction. More supply can improve availability for exporters and processors, although grade, protein, seed size and harvest weather will determine how much of the crop meets premium specifications.
The result also shows how climate risk changes planting choices before harvest begins. Northern growers responded to dry soils by reducing area or favouring crops such as barley that can be more attractive under tight moisture and input conditions. Southern growers entered the season with stronger moisture reserves and expanded or maintained pulse area.
What could still change
ABARES published the forecast before the full winter harvest. Rainfall, frost, heat and harvest-time weather can still change yields and quality. Advanced crop development in southern states may help crops avoid some late-season stress, but it can also increase exposure to frost if vulnerable growth stages arrive early.
The next official crop report will show whether the northern chickpea losses deepen or stabilise and whether the southern lentil crop converts strong field conditions into marketable grain. Until then, the most accurate reading is a forecast of a sharply smaller chickpea harvest alongside record lentil production—not a final production count.
Comments