Australia Forecasts Winter Crop Output Down 12% to 61 Million Tonnes in 2026-27

Australia's September 2026 Crop Report forecasts national winter-crop production at 61 million tonnes in 2026–27, a fall of 12% from the previous season. Summer-crop output is forecast at 3.4 million tonnes, down 25%, according to official ABARES estimates.

Why this matters

The national forecast combines regions facing different seasonal conditions. Timely winter rainfall improved crop prospects in some southern districts, while conditions across eastern growing areas were less favourable. The headline decline does not mean every Australian grain-producing region has the same yield outlook.

The limits and what happens next

These are forecasts, not final harvest results. Grain buyers, storage operators and exporters need to track rainfall, harvest progress, crop quality and revisions to state estimates before treating the numbers as delivered supply.

Original source

Primary source and original publication: https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook/australian-crop-report/september-2026