Australia's Beef Output Forecast to Ease 5% to 2.9 Million Tonnes

Australia's official September agricultural outlook projects beef production to fall by 5% to 2.9 million tonnes in 2026–27. Despite the forecast decline, that would still represent the country's second-highest beef production on record, according to ABARES.

Why this matters

The same outlook projects the gross value of cattle slaughter and live exports to fall 9% to A$22.4 billion and beef and live-cattle export value to decline 14% to A$18.6 billion. These numbers reflect projected volumes and prices, not confirmed results for the full financial year.

The limits and what happens next

Buyers should distinguish declining output from a collapse in supply. Herd conditions, slaughter rates, global competition, market access and exchange rates influence how a large but moderating Australian cattle industry performs.

Original source

Primary source and original publication: https://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook/september-2026