US Apple Crop Falls 6 Percent as Mid Atlantic Freeze Cuts Output

The United States is heading into a smaller apple season, with USDA forecasting 2026 production at 10.4 billion pounds, 665 million pounds below last year and 6 percent lower overall.

The national number hides a sharp regional split. Production in Washington, Michigan, Oregon and California is expected to remain relatively close to last season, while a damaging spring freeze hit orchards in the Mid Atlantic particularly hard.

Pennsylvania apple production is forecast at 210 million pounds, down 58 percent from 2025. Virginia is forecast at 77 million pounds, down 48 percent. If realized, Virginia would record its smallest apple crop in more than 50 years.

USDA links much of the Mid Atlantic damage to unusually warm conditions in March and early April that advanced bud development, followed by a cold snap around April 21. Trees that had moved further into bloom were more vulnerable to freeze injury.

Washington remains the dominant force in the U.S. fresh apple market. Its crop is forecast at 7.4 billion pounds, about 2 percent below last year but 6 percent above the previous five year average. That scale means Washington can partially cushion national fresh market availability even when eastern production contracts.

Fresh fruit prices were already higher year over year in August. USDA reported the fresh fruit consumer price index about 4 percent above August 2025, with apple prices up about 5 percent.

The outlook illustrates how a national crop number can conceal much larger local shocks. For growers in Pennsylvania and Virginia, the 2026 season is not a modest national decline but a major production loss driven by weather at a sensitive stage of crop development.