Indonesia Delays Planting Outlook as Wet Season Slips Into November

Indonesia expects the wet season to begin in early November across most of the country, later than an earlier October forecast. The national weather agency said about 61 percent of the country's land area would experience a delayed start, while El Niño conditions were expected to remain influential into the first quarter of 2027.

Authorities have advised the agricultural sector to adjust planting schedules and consider shorter cycle varieties where appropriate. The wet season is expected to peak across much of Indonesia in December.

Different crops face different risks

Industry groups cited by Reuters are already reporting drought effects. A cocoa farmers group said peak harvest production had fallen by as much as 15 percent compared with June. A sugarcane association estimated average output was down about 25 percent this year after drought and wildfires.

A rice farmer group official said around 30 percent of paddy fields lack irrigation infrastructure and estimated output could fall next year if dry conditions persist. A palm oil analyst separately projected a 2 percent to 8 percent decline in 2027 production. These are sector estimates, not one official national production forecast.

The practical issue for producers is sequencing. A shorter rainfall window can compress planting, crop establishment and water availability into a narrower period, with the impact varying by region, irrigation access and crop cycle.

Image credit: Alfianda Kurniawan via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY SA 4.0.