After Ireland’s 2026 Drought, 15% of Surveyed Dairy Farms Face Double-Digit Feed Gaps

Ireland’s national forage position has recovered enough to show a small overall surplus after the 2026 drought, but the headline conceals a sharper problem on dairy farms. A new Teagasc review finds that 14.8% of surveyed dairy holdings are more than 10% short of their winter-feed target—almost twice the 7.7% share among drystock farms.

The figures come from a National Fodder and Food Security Committee meeting held on 16 October. They matter beyond a single difficult season because they show which farms still carry risk after grass growth rebounds: higher-demand dairy systems, and holdings that entered the year without a feed buffer.

Original Agrilinkage editorial illustration. It represents pasture recovery and feed planning; it does not depict a specific farm or survey participant.

A national surplus with a long tail of deficits

Teagasc’s forage-stock table puts the weighted mean feed balance at a 6% national surplus. Across the surveyed farms, 28.9% reported surplus feed and 42.2% were on target. Together, that means 71.1% were at target or better.

The remaining 28.8% were below target. A 5–10% deficit affected 17.5% of farms, while 6.2% were 10–20% short and 5.1% were more than 20% short. Adding the last two groups gives an 11.3% share with a double-digit feed gap.

That distribution is more useful than the national mean. A positive average does not make forage interchangeable between farms: bales and silage must be available in the right region, of adequate quality and at a cost that still makes sense after transport. A minority of severe deficits can therefore coexist with comfortable national supply.

Dairy farms show nearly twice the deeper-shortfall rate

The enterprise split is the strongest decision-use finding in the dataset. Among dairy farms, 8.6% were 10–20% short and 6.2% were more than 20% short, for a combined 14.8%. Among drystock farms, the corresponding shares were 4.1% and 3.6%, or 7.7% combined.

On that basis, the double-digit shortfall rate in the dairy group is about 1.9 times the drystock rate, a gap of 7.1 percentage points. This does not by itself identify the cause. Dairy herds generally carry high feed demand and tighter quality requirements, but herd size, stocking rate, silage yields, bought-in feed and farm-specific management all influence the balance.

The immediate commercial consequence is uneven demand for additional forage and concentrates. Farms with a modest deficit may be able to close it through ration changes, later grazing or local purchases. Farms with a gap above 20% face a more difficult combination of volume, feed quality, cash flow and transport.

The drought cut growth, but autumn recovery changed the annual picture

PastureBase Ireland recorded 11,284 kilograms of dry matter per hectare grown year to date. That was 735 kg below 2025 and 716 kg below the ten-year average—roughly 6% lower in both comparisons. Yet it was only 28 kg below the five-year average, a difference of about 0.2%.

Those comparisons show why annual totals can understate operational stress. A farm can end near a multi-year production average and still suffer a serious mid-season gap if growth falls when animals need grass or when first- and second-cut silage should be secured. Later recovery improves the total but does not automatically replace feed already consumed or restore lost silage quality.

Among 850 farms quantified in PastureBase Ireland, current conserved feed averaged 4.4 months. Regional readings clustered between 4.2 months in several eastern and midland areas and 5.2 months in Kerry. The narrow range supports the national recovery story, while the farm-level deficit table shows why individual budgeting remains necessary.

A prior reserve sharply reduced this year’s risk

The clearest resilience signal is the relationship between last winter’s reserve and this October’s balance. Among farms that had no surplus in 2025–26, 22.4% now faced a deficit greater than 10%. Where the previous reserve exceeded 10%, only 4.9% were in that position.

That is a 17.5-point difference: the deeper-shortfall rate was about 4.6 times higher in the no-surplus group. The comparison is observational and does not prove that reserve size alone caused the outcome—farm type and management may differ between the groups—but it is consistent with Teagasc’s recommendation to hold an additional 400 kg of dry matter per livestock unit above normal winter reserves.

Teagasc also recommends a national fodder-budget survey each July, earlier first-cut silage where conditions permit, a summer contingency of 200–300 kg dry matter per livestock unit, and better grazing, storage and feeding infrastructure. The logic is to act before a seasonal deficit becomes a winter procurement problem.

What farmers and feed suppliers should watch next

The national surplus lowers the probability of a system-wide shortage, but it does not remove local purchasing pressure. The relevant indicators through winter are the pace of housing, daily feed use, silage analysis, milk-output response, local bale and concentrate prices, and whether farms with large deficits can source material without erasing margins through haulage or lower quality.

For suppliers, the dataset points to targeted rather than universal demand. Dairy districts and farms without carryover reserves are the more exposed segments. For policymakers, it argues for a mid-year warning system that tracks both average supply and the distribution of deficits, because the farms furthest below target are not visible in the national mean.

Method and primary source

This analysis uses Teagasc’s 16 October 2026 meeting summary and the accompanying 12-page National Fodder and Food Security Committee presentation. Agrilinkage calculated combined deficit shares, percentage-point gaps and simple ratios from the published tables. The material describes participating and surveyed farms, not a farm census; percentages should therefore be read as a current risk signal rather than a precise count of every Irish holding.