France's Pasture Growth Falls 43% Below Normal, Raising Winter Feed Concerns
A new French agriculture ministry statistical update shows that permanent-grassland growth remained severely below normal through 10 October 2026, leaving livestock farms with a feed-planning problem even after the summer heat eased. Agreste reported cumulative pasture growth 43% below the comparable 1989–2018 reference period, with insufficient rainfall since the late-June heatwave preventing the usual regrowth.
The economic transmission
The report says the deficit exceeds 20% in almost every forage region, with Mediterranean areas an exception. That matters because annual grass accumulation and the timing of regrowth influence how much fodder farms can cut or graze. The national percentage is a statistical indicator of growth relative to a historical reference, not a measured percentage reduction in stored hay or a prediction of livestock slaughter.
For dairy and beef producers, the immediate choice is how much grazing remains possible and whether to draw down already harvested reserves. Producers with a large forage stock may bridge the deficit without large purchases. Farms relying on late-season grass may need more purchased hay, silage or concentrate feed, which can raise costs even when grain prices are relatively stable.
A feed shortfall can have several delayed effects. Extra purchases pressure cash flow before winter; a reduction in herd size is one possible response to a prolonged shortage, but cannot be inferred from the pasture indicator alone. Milk volume, animal welfare and livestock marketing decisions also depend on ration quality, forage availability in neighbouring regions and government assistance.
The wider European relevance is the potential for cross-border forage trade and competition for feed ingredients. A livestock producer who shifts from grazed grass to cereal-based rations can encounter price signals very different from those facing a crop farm harvesting grain. Transport costs may become important where the closest available forage is hundreds of kilometres away.
What to watch and methodology
The signals to watch next are November pasture measurements, regional feed-stock surveys, hay and silage quotations, cattle movement data and dairy collections. Rain would help regrowth, but late-season temperature and day length constrain how quickly grass production can recover.
Methodology: This analysis is based on Agreste's 16 October pasture bulletin, using the ministry's stated cumulative growth deficit compared with the 1989–2018 reference. Feed and herd implications are conditional and have not been quantified as measured national losses.
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