Australia Lifts Winter Crop Outlook to 61 Million Tonnes After Better Rains

Australia's national winter crop production is forecast at 61 million tonnes for 2026 and 2027 after better than expected rainfall improved conditions across major southern cropping regions. ABARES raised its forecast by 12 percent from June.

Even after the upgrade, winter crop output is expected to be 12 percent lower than the previous season. At 61 million tonnes, production would remain 16 percent above the ten year average and rank as the fourth largest winter crop on record.

Wheat falls while barley and canola remain historically strong

ABARES forecasts wheat at 29.9 million tonnes, down 17 percent year on year. Barley is forecast at 16.4 million tonnes, down 3 percent but still 30 percent above its ten year average. Canola is expected at 7.3 million tonnes, down 5 percent and still 37 percent above its longer term average.

South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales have benefited from strong growing conditions, while northern New South Wales and Queensland have faced poorer moisture conditions. The summer outlook is weaker, with production forecast at 3.4 million tonnes, down 25 percent.

The contrast shows why the national headline needs to be separated into crop and regional components when assessing Australian supply.

Image credit: Calistemon via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY SA 4.0.