USDA Sees U.S. Apple Crop Down 6% and Pear Output Down 15% as Eastern Freeze Bites

The U.S. apple crop is forecast to fall 6% in 2026 while pear production drops 15%, creating a sharply divided fruit market in which severe eastern losses contrast with comparatively stable output in the West.

USDA’s Economic Research Service, in an outlook released September 24, put national apple production at 10.4 billion pounds, 665 million pounds below 2025 and 1% under the previous five year average. The same report forecasts 650,000 tons of pears, the third lowest U.S. volume since 1972.

Spring freeze damage reshapes the apple map

The national apple figure masks extreme regional differences. Pennsylvania production is forecast to fall 58% to 210 million pounds, while Virginia is expected to lose 48% and produce 77 million pounds. If realized, Virginia’s crop would be its smallest in more than 50 years.

New York production is forecast at 1.35 billion pounds, down 10% from last season. USDA linked the Mid Atlantic and New York reductions to an early spring bud break followed by a cold snap around April 21, when many orchards were at stages especially vulnerable to freeze injury.

The West Coast outlook is steadier. Washington, by far the largest apple producing state, is forecast to harvest 7.4 billion pounds, 2% less than last year but 6% above its recent five year average. California and Oregon are each expected to remain within 1% of their 2025 volumes.

That concentration matters commercially. Washington supplied between 71% and 80% of U.S. fresh market apple production over the past five seasons, so western packers and long distance freight networks will carry more of the burden of supplying eastern processors and retailers.

Prices face pressure from lower output and higher logistics costs

USDA expects the smaller crop, the eastern shortfall and higher transportation costs to place upward pressure on both fresh and processing apple prices during the 2026 to 2027 marketing year. Fresh fruit consumer prices were already 4% higher in August than a year earlier, while the apple component of the index was up 5%.

Storage conditions also point to a tighter transition. Fresh market apple holdings on June 1 were 8% below the previous year, and inventories of Gala and Red Delicious were about 20% lower. Shipping point prices for both varieties strengthened during the second half of the last marketing year.

Export value reached a record before the smaller harvest

The United States exported 1.87 billion pounds of fresh apples in the 2025 to 2026 marketing year. Volume increased 1%, but export value rose 12% to a nominal record of $1.16 billion as average unit value climbed 10%.

Mexico and Canada drove the increase, taking 39% and 18% of export volume respectively. Shipments to Mexico rose 14% to 740 million pounds and exports to Canada increased 15% to 343 million pounds. India moved in the opposite direction, with volume down 38% to 55.4 million pounds.

A smaller 2026 harvest does not automatically mean lower exports, because Washington’s crop remains relatively strong and exchange rates, freight and overseas prices will influence allocation. It does, however, reduce the buffer available to serve domestic and foreign buyers at the same time.

Pears and other fruit add to the mixed supply picture

Pear production is forecast to decline in California, Oregon and Washington. Oregon and California are each expected to produce 23% less than last year, while Washington is forecast 4% lower. The contraction follows a marketing year in which U.S. pear exports rebounded 56% and imports fell to a 14 year low.

Other fruit forecasts are mixed. California table grape production is projected to rise 10% and U.S. cranberry output 5%, while wine grape production in California and Washington is expected to fall 5%. California table olive production is forecast to drop 23%.

For growers, packers and buyers, the central 2026 story is therefore not a uniform fruit shortage. It is a more complicated regional rebalancing, with freeze affected eastern orchards facing acute losses while western production, storage and freight determine how much of the gap can be covered.