U.S. Farm Export Growth Is Shifting Toward Africa and South Asia, Report Argues

The next phase of U.S. agricultural export growth is likely to depend less on mature buyers and more on countries across Africa and South Asia, according to a new report commissioned by Farm Journal Foundation.

The September 2026 paper, written by North Dakota State University agricultural economist Shawn Arita, argues that fast growing food demand in lower and middle income economies creates a diversification opportunity for American farmers and agribusinesses. The opportunity is not automatic. It depends on infrastructure, regulation, financing, buyer relationships and long term market development.

Concentration has become a strategic risk

U.S. agricultural exports remain concentrated in Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, the European Union and United Kingdom, and South Korea. The report says these established markets represented roughly two thirds of U.S. agricultural exports at their 2022 peak. Their combined purchases rose from about $37 billion in 2000 to approximately $132 billion in 2022.

That concentration supported farm income and investment, but it also exposed producers to sudden policy and sourcing changes. China illustrates the risk. The report estimates that U.S. agricultural exports to China fell from roughly $38 billion in 2022 to about $8.4 billion in 2025, leaving the country with only about 5 percent of U.S. export value.

Relationships and logistics built around competing suppliers can persist even when formal barriers later ease. That means lost trade is not always recovered quickly, and it strengthens the case for a broader portfolio of medium sized markets.

Most new demand will be outside mature markets

Drawing on the OECD and FAO outlook, the report assigns 38 percent of projected global agricultural demand growth from 2025 through 2034 to Sub Saharan Africa and 30 percent to India. The rest of South Asia accounts for another 10 percent and Southeast Asia for 8 percent. Latin America and the Caribbean represent 7 percent, the Middle East 5 percent and China 2 percent.

The geography is compelling, but population growth does not equal available sales. Import demand will depend on domestic production, freight costs, ports, foreign exchange availability, regulation, tariffs and competition from closer suppliers.

The report highlights the gap between consumption and the current U.S. commercial footprint. Sub Saharan Africa accounts for about 13 percent of world calorie demand but only around 1 percent of U.S. agricultural exports. South Asia accounts for about 22 percent of calorie demand and less than 3 percent of U.S. exports.

Development and trade policy are linked

The central argument is that agricultural development can help create the systems commercial trade later needs. Cold storage, feed industries, food safety rules, biotechnology approvals, customs capacity and reliable contract enforcement all make it easier for local buyers and foreign suppliers to transact.

Bangladesh is presented as an example of gradual market building. It became a $1.2 billion destination for U.S. agricultural products in 2025 after decades of layered engagement. Guatemala, Pakistan, Cambodia and Zambia illustrate different stages of the same process. Brazil is treated as a caution because U.S. supported agricultural research also helped build a formidable competitor.

The report recommends closer coordination between development programs, trade promotion groups, universities, government agencies and private companies. It also calls for sustained presence in priority markets, stronger local capacity and support for internationally consistent sanitary, phytosanitary and biotechnology standards.

For exporters, the commercial lesson is practical. The largest long term opportunities may be in markets that are not yet easy to serve. Success will require product specific analysis, patient relationships and investment in the institutions and logistics that turn food demand into reliable trade.

Sources: Farm Journal Foundation report and USDA agricultural trade data.