US Corn Stocks Jump 35% as 2026 Wheat Output Falls 23%

U.S. grain markets are entering the new marketing year with a striking divergence between corn and wheat. Old-crop corn stocks on September 1 reached 2.10 billion bushels, 35% above a year earlier, while U.S. wheat production for 2026 fell to 1.53 billion bushels, down 23% from the revised 2025 total, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.

The corn increase is broad enough to matter for feed users, ethanol producers, exporters and grain handlers. NASS estimated 787 million bushels of corn remained on farms, up 22% from September 2025, while off-farm stocks climbed 44% to 1.31 billion bushels. Corn disappearance during June through August was 3.20 billion bushels, compared with 3.09 billion a year earlier.

Wheat supply moved in the opposite direction

All wheat stocks on September 1 totaled 1.85 billion bushels, down 14% from a year earlier. On-farm wheat stocks were 547 million bushels, down 21%, while off-farm stocks fell 10% to 1.30 billion bushels. NASS estimated June through August wheat disappearance at 608 million bushels, 14% below the same period in 2025.

The production side was even tighter. U.S. farmers harvested 31.9 million acres of wheat for grain in 2026, 15% less than in 2025, while the national yield fell 10% to 48.1 bushels per acre. Winter wheat production dropped 27% to 1.02 billion bushels, other spring wheat declined 10% to 450 million bushels and durum fell 24% to 64.8 million bushels.

What the split means for the market

The figures do not by themselves determine prices, because demand, exports, quality, regional basis levels and expectations for the next crop all matter. But the inventory split changes the starting point for commercial decisions. A larger corn carryout gives users a bigger physical buffer, while smaller wheat production and stocks reduce the margin for unexpected demand or supply disruptions.

NASS also revised the completed 2025 corn and soybean crops as part of its normal marketing-year review. Corn production was revised down by less than 1%, while soybean production was revised slightly lower. The September Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports are therefore both a snapshot of current inventories and a reset of the historical supply base used in commodity balance sheets.