South Korea CPTPP Study Puts Farm, Forestry and Fisheries Losses at ₩850 Billion a Year

South Korea's government has released a new economic impact assessment of possible entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership, putting the potential losses to agriculture, forestry and fisheries at about 850 billion won a year while estimating gains for the wider economy.

The analysis, released jointly by the trade, agriculture, fisheries, small business and forestry authorities, estimates that real gross domestic product would be 0.38 percentage point higher ten years after an eventual CPTPP agreement entered into force for South Korea.

The distribution of those gains and losses is sharply uneven. The government estimates that manufacturing output could increase by roughly 6.3 trillion to 6.7 trillion won a year on average over the fifteen years following implementation, while agriculture, forestry and fisheries output could decline by around 850 billion won annually.

For agriculture, the assessment turns CPTPP from a broad foreign policy discussion into a concrete market access issue. Joining the bloc would require South Korea to negotiate tariff concessions and other commitments across food and farm products with existing members, potentially increasing import competition in sensitive domestic sectors.

The government has not made a final decision to join. In late August, it said it was beginning consultation and social discussion without predetermining the outcome, and that agricultural stakeholders would be consulted before any decision on accession was taken.

That distinction is important because the numbers released this week are impact estimates, not the terms of an agreed accession package. Actual outcomes for individual commodities would depend on the tariff schedules, transition periods, safeguards and exceptions South Korea was able to negotiate if it chose to proceed.

The process is now moving into a more detailed consultation phase. South Korea's Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries scheduled a meeting with fishing industry representatives for September 29, while the government has said it will explain the analysis and gather views across affected industries.

For agricultural exporters around the Pacific, South Korea's deliberations matter because accession could create new market access opportunities in a large food importing economy. For Korean producers, the same process raises questions about competitive pressure, adjustment support and which farm and livestock products would receive the most protection in any eventual negotiation.