OECD-FAO Warns Farm Income Gains Could Vanish Under Repeated Price Shocks

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026–2035 projects average gross agricultural income per worker to rise 9% by 2035 under its baseline. But the modelling estimates a 25% probability that farm incomes could instead end the period lower than current levels if shocks continue at recent frequency.

Why this matters

The report links the risk to energy and fertilizer costs, disruptions to trade and uneven access to productivity-improving technology. It separately projects world agricultural and fisheries output to rise about 13% over ten years in a stable scenario.

The limits and what happens next

The figures are conditional projections, not an assertion that one in four actual farmers will lose income. Policy and business responses include stronger access to finance, diversified supply routes, input efficiency and improved market access for small producers.

Original source

Primary source and original publication: https://www.fao.org/newsroom/detail/sustained-agricultural-market-volatility-could-lead-to-reduced-farmer-incomes-over-the-next-decade/en