NSW Primary Industries Reach A$26 Billion as Livestock Gains Offset Drier Crops
New South Wales’ primary industries generated an estimated A$26 billion in gross value of production in 2025–26, a second consecutive record. The headline, however, conceals a sharp divergence: livestock value surged while dry conditions reduced crop output. The result is best read as a price-and-mix story, not evidence that every part of the rural economy expanded.
The NSW Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development said on 21 October that total value rose 4%, or about A$1 billion, from the previous year. Livestock climbed 25% to A$11.9 billion, cropping reached A$9.8 billion, horticulture A$3.7 billion, forestry A$436 million and fisheries A$226 million. The detailed annual report is not due until mid-November, so the figures remain a high-level estimate rather than a complete commodity-by-commodity account.
Livestock created the record — and offset weakness elsewhere
The arithmetic shows how concentrated the gain was. A 25% increase to A$11.9 billion implies livestock was worth roughly A$9.5 billion a year earlier, using the rounded figures in the release. That is an increase of about A$2.4 billion. Because total primary-industry value rose by only A$1 billion, other sectors together must have offset roughly A$1.4 billion of that livestock gain. The estimate is approximate because every published figure is rounded, but the direction is clear.
Livestock accounted for about 45.8% of the A$26 billion total, while cropping represented 37.7% and horticulture 14.2%. Forestry and fisheries together contributed about 2.5%. The sector values add to A$26.06 billion, a small difference that illustrates the effect of rounding.
Sector | 2025–26 value | Share of A$26bn | Signal |
Livestock | A$11.9bn | 45.8% | +25%; record red-meat output and stronger prices |
Cropping | A$9.8bn | 37.7% | Dryness reduced output; winter crop still fourth highest |
Horticulture | A$3.7bn | 14.2% | 10% above five-year average |
Forestry | A$436m | 1.7% | Softwood partly offset weaker hardwood supply |
Fisheries | A$226m | 0.9% | Smallest reported component |
This concentration matters for farm businesses and regional suppliers. A high aggregate value can coexist with pressure in crop districts where lower rainfall reduced yields, or where input costs absorbed more of the revenue. Gross value measures output at market prices before subtracting feed, fuel, fertiliser, labour, finance and other costs; it is not farm profit.
A record in dollars is not the same as a record in physical output
NSW reported record red-meat production and stronger livestock prices, but the crop picture was mixed. Winter crop production was 18.7 million tonnes — the fourth-highest result on record — even as drier conditions reduced overall crop output. Barley’s gross value reached a record A$1.1 billion, while wheat, cotton, oilseeds and pulses also remained above A$1 billion each.
The distinction between value and volume is essential. The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ methodology defines gross value as recorded production multiplied by the average unit value realised in the marketplace. A value record can therefore come from more tonnes, higher prices or both. It does not, by itself, measure productivity, profitability or inflation-adjusted growth.
That is why the livestock result should not be projected mechanically into 2026–27. The federal ABARES September 2026 outlook expects national beef production to ease 5% to 2.9 million tonnes in 2026–27, while the gross value of cattle slaughter and live exports falls 9% as prices and volumes moderate. NSW’s 2025–26 record describes the year just completed; it does not guarantee the next one.
Exports reveal the demand engine
NSW primary-industry exports reached A$13 billion, the second-highest result on record and only A$100 million below the 2022–23 peak. Livestock exports were A$6.7 billion, broadacre crops A$5.8 billion and horticulture A$411 million.
Beef exports rose 34% to A$3.7 billion. Reversing that percentage from the rounded figure suggests a prior-year value near A$2.76 billion, meaning beef added roughly A$940 million in export value. Sheep, lamb and goat meat exports reached A$1.7 billion, while wheat exports rose 4% to A$2 billion on higher volumes and continued Southeast Asian demand.
Market growth was broad but uneven. Exports to China increased 6% to a record A$3.8 billion, supported by beef, cotton, sorghum and wool. Exports to the United States jumped 40% to A$1.9 billion, largely on red meat. On the same rounded basis, that equates to an increase of about A$540 million from roughly A$1.36 billion a year earlier.
What the November report must clarify
The mid-November annual report should provide the detail needed to test the headline. Key questions include the commodity-level contribution of price versus production, regional differences across drought-affected districts, and whether revenue growth outpaced higher operating and financing costs.
Three indicators deserve particular attention into 2026–27: livestock saleyard prices as national output moderates; spring and summer rainfall for crop and pasture recovery; and export demand from China, the United States and Southeast Asia. A reversal in any one could lower nominal value even if underlying farm productivity remains sound.
For now, NSW’s record is substantial but specific: livestock prices and output, especially red meat, more than compensated for weaker crop volumes. The A$26 billion figure signals strong market receipts across the state’s primary industries; it should not be mistaken for uniform growth across commodities or a direct measure of farm income.
Methodology
Agrilinkage calculated sector shares from the NSW government’s rounded A$26 billion total. Prior-year livestock and export values were inferred by reversing the reported growth rates; these are approximate and may not reconcile exactly because the source figures are rounded. The analysis distinguishes gross value of production from physical output and farm profit using ABS methodology. No interviews were conducted.
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