Feed Demand Pushes Global Barley Imports Near a Record, With China Taking 40%

By AgriLinkage Trade & Commodities | 13 October 2026

Global barley imports are forecast at almost 35 million tonnes in 2025/26, the second-highest volume on record after 2020/21, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The driver is feed demand rather than a boom in beer: China alone is expected to buy 14 million tonnes, more than 40% of world imports.

That distinction matters because it changes how buyers should read the barley market. Malting demand is tied to brewing specifications and consumer markets. Feed barley competes more directly with corn and other grains, so trade can move rapidly when policy, relative prices or domestic harvests alter the feed calculation.

China accounts for the biggest shift

USDA estimates China's barley imports at 14 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 4 million tonnes from 2024/25. Using those rounded figures, that is a 40% increase in one year. USDA links the change to China's restrictive tariff-rate quota for corn, efforts to reduce corn imports and wider trade tensions that affected feed-grain choices.

The 14-million-tonne forecast is equivalent to roughly two out of every five tonnes imported globally. That concentration means changes in Chinese feed policy, livestock demand or domestic grain supply can reset barley trade flows even when brewing demand changes only slowly.

Primary source: USDA Grain: World Markets and Trade, October 2026

Other importers add to the feed pull

Saudi Arabia is forecast to import more than 4.7 million tonnes, maintaining its position as the second-largest buyer. Turkey's imports are also expected to rise after a historically small domestic crop, while Libya and Jordan remain steady sources of demand. These markets reinforce barley's role as a livestock-feed grain in regions where domestic production can be constrained by climate and water.

On the supply side, larger crops in the European Union, Canada and Australia helped meet the extra demand. For exporters, the opportunity is not uniform: feed barley typically earns a different margin from malting barley, and quality, freight and destination access determine whether a nominally large global market is commercially reachable.

The export mix shows this is a feed story

USDA's comparison of Argentina, Australia and Canada is revealing. In 2022/23 the three exporters shipped about 4 million tonnes of malting barley and 9 million tonnes of other barley, mostly feed. By 2025/26, the comparable volumes are about 5 million and 13 million tonnes. The feed-oriented category therefore increased by roughly 44% on the rounded figures, versus about 25% for malting barley.

The calculation does not mean malting barley is unimportant. Its premiums and quality requirements matter greatly to growers and maltsters. It does show that the recent trade expansion is principally a bulk-feed phenomenon, not evidence of an equivalent increase in beer consumption.

Why USDA expects trade to ease next year

For 2026/27, USDA forecasts global barley imports at just over 30 million tonnes. Against the rounded 35-million-tonne estimate for 2025/26, that is a decline of about 14%, though the precise percentage depends on the unrounded underlying numbers. USDA expects larger domestic crops in several importing countries and a normalization of exporter supplies.

A decline from an exceptional year should not automatically be read as market collapse. The projected volume would remain substantial. The more useful question is whether barley continues to price competitively against corn and whether China keeps using barley as a policy and procurement alternative.

What buyers and producers should watch

Feed manufacturers should track the barley-to-corn price spread at delivered ports, not only benchmark futures. Freight, protein content, test weight and ration limits can change the usable value of barley. Import policy and phytosanitary access can matter as much as the headline crop estimate.

For growers in Australia, Canada, Argentina and the European Union, sustained feed demand can widen the market for barley that does not meet malting specifications. But heavy dependence on a small number of importers creates exposure: a policy change or stronger Chinese corn crop can quickly reduce purchasing needs.

The clearest indicators for the next turn are China's monthly barley arrivals, domestic corn auctions and feed margins; crop outcomes in major exporters; and import demand in Saudi Arabia and Turkey. If those remain firm while the barley-corn spread stays competitive, trade could exceed USDA's 2026/27 baseline. If importers harvest larger crops and corn becomes easier to source, the expected normalization becomes more likely.

Methodology and disclosure

AgriLinkage calculated the rounded percentage changes from USDA's published tonnage comparisons. Because the source describes some totals as ‘almost’ or ‘just over,’ the percentages are approximate and are presented as analytical guides, not false precision. Marketing-year data and forecasts can be revised.

Image: original AI-generated conceptual editorial illustration for AgriLinkage. It does not depict a specific port, shipment or farm.