EU Agri-Food Surplus Widens to €30.1 Billion as US Exports Fall 9%

The European Union’s agri-food trade surplus reached €30.1 billion in the first seven months of 2026, widening by €2.9 billion from the same period a year earlier even though exports declined. The result reflects a sharper fall in import values than in export values, rather than a broad increase in overseas sales.

The European Commission’s latest monthly report, published on September 28 with data through July, puts cumulative exports at €138.7 billion, down €1.6 billion or 1% year on year. Imports fell €4.5 billion, or 4%, to €108.6 billion. In July alone, exports rose 5% from June to €21.3 billion while imports dropped 4% to €15.1 billion, producing a monthly surplus of €6.2 billion.

Trade with the United States delivered the largest export decline. EU agri-food exports to the US fell €1.66 billion, or 9%, to €16.0 billion in January through July. The Commission links the comparison partly to unusually high shipments in early 2025, when some trade may have been brought forward ahead of announced US tariffs. Drinks, olive oil and cocoa products accounted for much of the reduction.

The United Kingdom remained the EU’s largest agri-food export destination, but shipments there fell €843 million, or 3%, to €31.8 billion. Exports to Japan declined €538 million, or 11%, as lower tobacco prices and reduced pigmeat volumes weighed on trade. Shipments to the United Arab Emirates fell €437 million, or 23%, after the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted Gulf trade earlier in the year, although the report says flows moved closer to average levels from June.

Several markets moved in the opposite direction. EU exports to Egypt rose €251 million, or 22%, mainly because of wheat. Exports to Ukraine increased €239 million, led by spirits, while shipments to Türkiye grew €235 million, with beef and veal providing much of the increase. These gains helped offset, but did not eliminate, the declines in the larger US, UK and Japanese markets.

Product data show that the headline surplus was strongly influenced by price movements. Export value for coffee, tea, cocoa and spices fell €1.3 billion, or 16%, as cocoa paste, butter and powder volumes declined 11% and prices fell 30%. Pigmeat exports dropped €930 million, or 13%, while olives and olive oil declined €418 million, or 11%, through a combination of lower prices and lower volumes.

On the import side, lower cocoa prices had an even larger effect. Imports in the coffee, tea, cocoa and spices category fell €4.8 billion, or 19%, and the Commission says cocoa product prices were 28% lower. Imports from Côte d’Ivoire declined €1.2 billion, while those from Cameroon and Nigeria each fell 46%. Those figures describe the value crossing the border and should not be read as equivalent declines in physical consumption.

Feed and oilseed flows were more resilient. Imports from Brazil increased €528 million, or 5%, mainly because of higher soybean volumes, and imports from Argentina rose €240 million, or 8%, on stronger sunflower-seed trade. At the same time, cereal imports fell €609 million, including a 32% drop in wheat import value and an 18% decline for rice.

For exporters and processors, the report points to a market that is financially stronger in aggregate but uneven underneath. A larger surplus can coexist with pressure on pigmeat, olive oil, cocoa processing and US-facing drink exporters because falling import prices improve the balance mechanically. The operational questions are therefore not only whether Europe sells more than it buys, but which products are moving, at what prices, and through which routes.