Biofuel Expansion Could Add 36 Million Hectares of Feedstock Demand by 2030

Global biofuel output could rise by nearly 70 percent between 2025 and 2030 as governments accelerate blending mandates in response to energy security concerns. The projection comes from a study by Chatham House and the Forest Stewardship Council, which examines how faster fuel demand could reshape agricultural land use and commodity markets.

Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the United States and the European Union have proposed or adopted higher blending requirements. Those policies create a relatively predictable source of demand for ethanol, biodiesel and renewable fuel, but they also connect energy policy more tightly to markets for corn, sugarcane, vegetable oils and animal feed.

The study estimates that full implementation of announced mandates could more than double the land required for biofuel feedstocks by 2030 compared with 2023. That expansion would add about 36 million hectares, an area roughly comparable with Germany, if production relies heavily on conventional food and feed crops.

The shift matters because first generation biofuels use commodities that already serve food, livestock and industrial customers. Ethanol demand can strengthen corn and sugar markets, while biodiesel demand can influence soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil and used cooking oil prices. The effect depends on regional mandates, crop yields and the availability of substitutes.

Reuters reported that crude oil prices had risen nearly 40 percent since the start of the Iran conflict, while sugar and corn prices had gained about 20 percent. Higher petroleum prices improve the relative economics of biofuels, encouraging governments and refiners to move faster, but they also raise fertilizer, freight and processing costs for agriculture.

Feedstock choice is therefore critical. First generation fuels made from corn, sugarcane and edible oils can intensify competition for productive land, water and food. Advanced fuels made from crop residues, municipal waste and used oils reduce some of that pressure, although collection, traceability and processing capacity limit how quickly they can scale.

For growers and processors, stronger mandates could support investment in crushing, fermentation and storage capacity. For livestock producers and food manufacturers, the same policy can increase exposure to feed and ingredient inflation. Land values, certification costs and water availability may become more important constraints as demand expands.

The decisive policy question is not simply how much biofuel governments require, but which feedstocks qualify and what safeguards accompany the mandate. Clear rules for waste based fuels, degraded land, certification and indirect land use will determine whether the expansion improves energy resilience without shifting excessive costs into food markets.