What USDA’s September Feed Outlook Signals for Corn Supply and Prices

The United States Department of Agriculture’s September Feed Outlook tightened the 2026 corn balance sheet even though the crop is still projected to be historically large. The Economic Research Service report, published September 15, combines the latest crop observations with the September supply and demand estimates to show how lower yields are changing both inventory and price expectations.

USDA lowered its 2026 corn yield forecast by 2.2 bushels per acre to 178.5 bushels and reduced projected harvested area by 86,000 acres to 88.5 million. Together, those changes cut expected production by 213 million bushels to 15.8 billion, about 1 percent below the previous forecast.

That revision does not describe a small crop. USDA still expects the second largest United States corn harvest on record, but the national total masks sharp regional pressure. Nebraska, North Dakota and Kansas recorded the largest month to month production cuts, with drought and extreme heat affecting key stages of crop development.

The supply adjustment reaches beyond production. USDA reduced projected 2026 and 2027 corn supply by 236 million bushels to 17.7 billion after also lowering beginning stocks. Feed and residual use was cut by 150 million bushels to 6.0 billion, leaving projected ending stocks at 1.6 billion bushels, 86 million below the August estimate.

Price expectations moved in the opposite direction. The season average farm price forecast rose 30 cents to 4.80 dollars per bushel. USDA linked the change to stronger futures, expectations for cash prices and a tighter balance sheet, with the projected stocks to use ratio falling to 9.7 percent from 10.1 percent in August.

Sorghum is tighter as well. USDA cut the yield forecast to 54.4 bushels per acre and reduced harvested area to 5.2 million acres. The resulting production downgrade lowered projected exports and left ending stocks at 21 million bushels, with a 7 percent stocks to use ratio, both among the tightest readings since the 2020 and 2021 marketing year.

The global picture is uneven. USDA reduced projected 2026 and 2027 coarse grain production by 5.1 million metric tons, led by lower United States corn and sorghum output. India’s corn forecast fell on weaker harvested area, Kenya’s crop was cut after severe dryness, while Australia’s barley forecast increased after favorable rainfall.

For buyers and producers, the report points to a market that can remain well supplied in absolute terms while becoming less comfortable at the margin. A large corn crop is not the same as a loose balance sheet when beginning stocks fall and weather trims yield. The next important tests are harvest data, cash market behavior and whether demand adjusts fast enough to keep inventories near the current projection.